Archives For NCAAF

Moot Realignment

Tyler Raborn — Friday, February 22, 2013 — 5 Comments

When the phrase “conference realignment” is uttered, most college sports fans can’t help but roll their eyes.

…or throw up.

Yet conference realignment is prevalent in today’s college sports’ landscape.

But why?

As Pete Thamel pointed out in his Sports Illustrated article, conference realignment, such as Maryland joining the Big Ten, has been fueled by revenues from cable deals:

Maryland will join the Big Ten conference in 2014 after a vote by its Board of Regents on Monday to end a 59-year relationship with the ACC. The impetus of the move, primarily, is to help save an athletic department struggling financially and to set up a huge potential payday for the Big Ten through increased cable revenue.

Even the mighty SEC has fallen victim to this greedy desire, as Chris Smith pointed out in his article:

The conference has two deals to renegotiate: a $825 million first-tier rights contract with CBS, and a $2.25 billion second-tier deal with ESPN. Both are 15-year contracts that were signed in 2008 and run through the 2023-24 season. The SEC gets the chance to renegotiate both deals thanks to the recent additions of Missouri and Texas A&M.

The SEC’s first-tier rights deal pays an average $55 million annually, and that payout should move up to a minimum $64 million to equally compensate the two new members.

But has it all been worth it?

Maybe. We don’t know yet. But we can speculate.

Apple fever has been sweeping the United States for the last few years. People who once vowed they’d never give up their Blackberry, including myself, are now on their 2nd iPhone. PC users have become Mac diehards. And some families have given up their cable boxes for the selective programming offered by Apple TV.

That same selective programming, through applications such as Netflix and Hulu Plus, are available on Xbox and Playstation as well.

So where is this all headed?

We don’t know.

There’s a lot of money moving around in Washington from companies to lobbyists that we don’t know about.

But we’re speculating.

If a company could offer totally selective programming, wouldn’t everyone opt to do it?

Instead of paying $63.99 for 300 channels, 293 of which you don’t watch, wouldn’t you rather pay $35 for the channels you do watch? Or more so, $15 simply for the specific shows and events you watch?

Obviously cable companies are doing everything they can to block a transition to selective programming. Yet it seems to be consumer-friendly. Maybe next year, maybe in 50 years, it could happen.

There is a disproportionality in what people watch and how much money those programs make off of their specific event. Yet it seems the programming that is getting the “short end of the stick” could eventually break out of their cable deals and into the free market of “pay-per-program” television.

Imagine turning on your Xbox and being able to select any show, movie, or live sporting event you please for a cost.

This model would also inspire more talented independent people to create shows and movies, if they were given a user-friendly platform. Simply look at what Xbox’s platform has done for small game developers. Or what YouTube has done for creative film students.

The economics behind a shift to this model contain an outrageous amount of variables, which could be credited with the slow and hesitant move to what seems to be an obvious choice for consumers. Yet this article’s purpose isn’t to analyze the percentage chance of this move happening or how quickly it could come. Rather, this article seeks to pose a question to conferences that are realigning:

What if the cable deals that motivated all of the geographically irrational conference realignment fall apart?

You’re all thinking “slim chance.”

I know.

But—what if?

The conferences could begin marching to a different drummer. Cable deals could no longer be the motivating factor, but rather, maximizing viewership of individual events.

When Auburn rolls into Tuscaloosa to play Alabama in the Iron Bowl, and 12 million viewers tune in, Alabama and Auburn could exclusively profit off of that event. Playing rivals could become even more attractive for schools.

Further, big non-conference games could become much more attractive to schools. If Michigan could profit more from a television event that featured them playing Oklahoma, more so than Appalachian State (ha), then they could be more likely to schedule big games.

This could also lead realigned conferences to… realign. Again.

Schools could lose more money from being part of conferences not geographically-friendly. The burden of travel cost on schools could no longer be outweighed by the “profit-sharing” cable deals of certain conferences.

Thus, schools could be inclined to join more geographically-friendly conferences. We could end up with more logically aligned conferences where teams are financially encouraged to play more successful non-conference opponents.

Yes, I know that several schools would be left high and dry without profit-sharing. So maybe some conferences still implore profit-sharing. I don’t know, nor care to study, the exact dollars and cents behind it. But I will say that I am a proponent of free market ideology—so, there’s that.

Either way, the destruction of cable deals could lead to much more fan-friendly conference re-realignment. It could also lead to schools playing more prominent non-conference games.

But…

These possibilites are all “could be” scenarios, rather than “will be.” Too many key pieces, including politicians, cable executives, contract laws, and a plethora of other obstacles, stand in the way of this conference utopia.

So in conclusion… we have no conclusion. Merely a glimmer of hope that one day, this will all make sense.

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By: Tyler Raborn

In NCAAB, NCAAF Conference Cable Deals, Conference Realignment

David Fangupo: The 350-Pound Running Back

Tyler Raborn — Wednesday, February 13, 2013 — 6 Comments

Check out this video of David Fangupo, a 350-pound running back from Hawaii:

According to the Huffington Post, David has committed to the University of Hawaii, making him the first athletic 350-pounder not to commit to an SEC school in years…

In NCAAF, Videos 350-Pound Running Back, 350-Pound Running Back Video, David Fangupo, Hawaii Running Back Commit

High School Star Ratings for the 2011 NFL All-Pro Team

Tyler Raborn — Saturday, February 9, 2013 — 2 Comments

Earlier this week I posted a short article on the 2012 NFL All-Pro team and how many stars they had from Scout and Rivals coming out of high school. It had such a positive response that I decided to do the same thing with the 2011 NFL All-Pro team and compare them to the 2012 All-Pro team.

So here’s the 2011 NFL All-Pro Team and how many stars (the star counts are now hyperlinked to their recruiting profiles) they had from Scout and Rivals coming out of high school (players that graduated high school before 2002 are not in the database):

Position	Player	Scout	Rivals
QB	Aaron Rodgers	–	–
RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	4	4
RB	LeSean McCoy	5	4
FB	Vonta Leach	–	–
WR	Calvin Johnson	5	4
WR	Wes Welker	–	–
TE	Rob Gronkowski	4	4
OT	Jason Peters	–	–
OT	Joe Thomas	NR	4
G	Carl Nicks	–	–
G	Jahari Evans	–	–
C	Maurkice Pouncey	4	4
DE	Jared Allen	–	–
DE	Jason Pierre-Paul	5	4
DT	Haloti Ngata	5	5
DT	Justin Smith	–	–
OLB	Terrell Suggs	–	–
OLB	DeMarcus Ware	–	–
ILB	NaVorro Bowman	4	4
ILB	Patrick Willis	2	3
ILB	Derrick Johnson	–	–
CB	Charles Woodson	–	–
CB	Darrelle Revis	3	3
S	Troy Polamalu	–	–
S	Eric Weddle	2	2
KR	Patrick Peterson	5	5

And here’s the All-Pro team’s broken down by star and year (Scout’s stars and Rivals’ stars are averaged):

Stars	2011	2012
5	2	1
4.5	4	1
4	4	4
3.5	0	3
3	1	3
2.5	1	2
2	1	4
Total	13	18
Out of	26	25

While only 13 players from the 2011 All-Pro team were in the database, they still managed to produce 10 players 4-stars or higher. In contrast, the 2012 team had 18 players, but only managed 6 players 4-stars or higher.

But the real story in all of this? Rob Gronkowski.

Dumbfounded doesn’t even begin to describe whatever is going on up there. And keep in mind, that guy—yes, that guy—was just offered $3.75M to be in an “adult film.”

————

By: Tyler Raborn

In NCAAF, NCAAF Recruiting, NFL 2012 All-Pro Team, 2013 National Signing Day, NFL All-Pro Team Recruiting Star Ratings, Rob Gronkowski

National Signing Day is Just the Beginning

Tyler Raborn — Wednesday, February 6, 2013 — 1 Comment

Earlier today, J.J. Watt tweeted this motivational tweet:

The All-Pro defensive end makes a good point— a player’s college or pro football success doesn’t depend on how highly touted a player is coming out of high school. Hard work, good coaching, and a few lucky breaks significantly weigh into a recruit’s eventual performance on the field.

For proof, just look at the 2012 NFL All-Pro Team and how many stars they had from Scout and Rivals coming out of high school (players that graduated high school before 2002 are not in the database):

Position	Player	Scout	Rivals
QB	Peyton Manning	–	–
RB	Adrian Peterson	5	5
RB	Marshawn Lynch	4	4
FB	Vonta Leach	–	–
WR	Calvin Johnson	5	4
WR	Brandon Marshall	–	–
TE	Tony Gonzalez	–	–
OT	Duane Brown	3	3
OT	Ryan Clady	2	2
G	Mike Iupati	2	2
G	Jahari Evans	–	–
C	Max Unger	2	3
DE	J.J. Watt	2	2
DE	Cameron Wake	–	–
DT	Geno Atkins	3	4
DT	Vince Wilfork	–	–
OLB	Von Miller	4	4
OLB	Aldon Smith	3	3
ILB	NaVorro Bowman	4	4
ILB	Patrick Willis	2	3
CB	Richard Sherman	3	3
CB	Charles Tillman	–	–
S	Earl Thomas	4	4
S	Dashon Goldson	3	4
KR	Jacoby Jones	2	2

So, more than likely, there’s a 2-star player signing somewhere today with little to no media attention that will one day be an All-Pro NFL player.

————

By: Tyler Raborn

In NCAAF, NCAAF Recruiting, NFL 2012 All-Pro Team, 2013 National Signing Day, NFL All-Pro Team Recruiting Star Ratings

How High School Quarterbacks’ Star Ratings Correlate to the NFL Draft

Tyler Raborn — Saturday, February 2, 2013 — 9 Comments

Gavin Dickey was a promising 5-star quarterback prospect from Tallahassee, Florida in 2002. The state of Florida’s Gatorade Player of the Year was “[a] four year starter for a Tallahassee Lincoln program that won two state championships and compiled a 45-5 overall record in his four years as the signal caller.”

But Dickey never lived up to the hype. In 2004 he served primarily as a backup to Chris Leak and eventually saw action at 3 different positions (quarterback, running back, and wide receiver). During his tenure at Florida he attempted a total of 15 passes, completing 11 for 127 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception.

Dickey is just one of the many high school football phenoms to never make it professionally. In fact, of the 408 quarterbacks to be rated a 3-star or better between 2002 and 2007, only 45 of them were selected in the NFL draft. The other 88.97% of those quarterbacks continued on to live out the NCAA moto and went “pro in something other than sports.”

The questions this article seeks to answer are:

What is the percentage chance a 5-star quarterback eventually gets selected in the NFL draft?

What is the percentage chance a 5-star quarterback eventually gets selected in the 1st round of the NFL draft?

What about quarterbacks that have a 4-star or 3-star rating— what are their chances to be selected in the NFL draft? What about the 1st round?

To answer these questions, we’ll apply all available complete data. Scout, Inc. ranks athletes according to a star rating system that rates players as 5-stars, 4-stars, 3-stars, 2-stars, and NR (Not Ranked), with 5-stars being the highest ranking a player can receive. The following table illustrates the number of 5-star, 4-star, and 3-star quarterbacks in each recruiting class year from 2002 to 2007:

Year	5-Stars	4-Stars	3-Stars	Totals
2002	5	29	37	71
2003	4	23	45	72
2004	4	15	37	56
2005	4	21	36	61
2006	4	18	46	68
2007	6	31	43	80
Totals	27	137	244	408

As illustrated in the table above, a very small portion of the quarterbacks each year receive Scout’s 5-star rating. An average of 68 quarterbacks a year between 2002 and 2007 received a 3-star rating or better. And of those top 68 quarterbacks in the country, only between 4 and 6 received a 5-star rating. Further, on a macro level, of all of the quarterbacks that received a 3-star rating or better between 2002 and 2007, 6.62% of them received a 5-star rating, 33.58% received a 4-star rating, and the remaining 59.80% received a 3-star rating.

Summarized: It’s tough to get 5 stars.

But what do these ratings truly represent? Since Scout’s recruiting rankings database starts in 2002, we are just now beginning to get a large enough sample size to analyze this rating system. So of the 408 quarterbacks in our sample, here’s a table with the 45 quarterbacks that were eventually drafted, segmented by their Scout Star Ratings, with the round they were taken in the NFL Draft:

Round	5-Stars	4-Stars	3-Stars	Totals
1st	5	5	4	14
2nd	2	2	1	5
3rd	2	1	1	4
4th	0	2	1	3
5th	3	2	4	9
6th	2	2	2	6
7th	0	2	2	4
Totals	14	16	15	45

While the number of 5-star, 4-star, and 3-star quarterbacks taken in the NFL draft were relatively even, this number is misleading. As discussed earlier, a much smaller portion of high school quarterbacks received a 4-star rating than a 3-star rating, and an even smaller portion received a 5-star rating.

Here are the 27 quarterbacks to receive a 5-star rating from Scout from 2002 to 2007 with the round and year they were drafted in (if applicable):

Recruiting Class	Quarterback	Draft Round	Year Drafted
2002	Vince Young	1	2006
2002	Trent Edwards	3	2007
2002	Ben Olson	N/A	N/A
2002	Reggie McNeal	6	2006
2002	Gavin Dickey	N/A	N/A
2003	John David Booty	5	2008
2003	Kyle Wright	N/A	N/A
2003	Chris Leak	N/A	N/A
2003	JaMarcus Russell	1	2007
2004	Rhett Bomar	5	2009
2004	Xavier Lee	N/A	N/A
2004	Anthony Morelli	N/A	N/A
2004	Chad Henne	2	2008
2005	Mark Sanchez	1	2009
2005	Ryan Perrilloux	N/A	N/A
2005	Jonathan Crompton	5	2010
2005	Joe Ayoob	N/A	N/A
2006	Mitch Mustain	N/A	N/A
2006	Matthew Stafford	1	2009
2006	Tim Tebow	1	2010
2006	Brent Schaeffer	N/A	N/A
2007	Jimmy Clausen	2	2010
2007	Ryan Mallett	3	2011
2007	Aaron Corp	N/A	N/A
2007	Tyrod Taylor	6	2011
2007	Kodi Burns	N/A	N/A
2007	Pat Bostick	N/A	N/A

So, as this table illustrates, 14 of the 27 quarterbacks were selected in the NFL Draft. And 5 of these 27 quarterbacks were taken in the 1st round. Thus, 51.85% of quarterbacks to receive a 5-star rating from Scout were eventually taken in the NFL draft. Accordingly, 18.52% were taken in the 1st round.

The following table shows the percentage chance that quarterbacks with a certain star rating from 2002 through 2007 would eventually be drafted into specific rounds. Further, the final row of the table, titled “Any,” represents the percentage chance for a certain star rating to be drafted in general, while the last column, titled “All,” represents the percentage chance that one of the 408 quarterbacks in our sample would be taken in a particular round.

Round	5-Stars	4-Stars	3-Stars	All
1st	18.52%	3.65%	1.64%	3.43%
2nd	7.41%	1.46%	0.41%	1.23%
3rd	7.41%	0.73%	0.41%	0.98%
4th	0.00%	1.46%	0.41%	0.74%
5th	11.11%	1.46%	1.64%	2.21%
6th	7.41%	1.46%	0.82%	1.47%
7th	0.00%	1.46%	0.82%	0.98%
Any	51.85%	11.68%	6.15%	11.03%

So returning to the questions this article sought to answer…

What is the percentage chance a 5-star quarterback eventually gets selected in the NFL draft?

Given our available data, a quarterback that received a 5-star rating from Scout had a 51.85% chance to eventually be selected in the NFL draft. That number is simply astounding. Over half of the quarterbacks given 5-stars were eventually taken in the NFL draft.

What is the percentage chance a 5-star quarterback eventually gets selected in the 1st round of the NFL draft?

A 5-star quarterback had a 18.52% chance of eventually being selected in the 1st round.

What about quarterbacks that have a 4-star or 3-star rating— what are their chances to be selected in the NFL draft? What about the 1st round?

Quarterbacks that were given a 4-star rating from 2002 through 2007 had a 11.68% chance of eventually being drafted and a 3.65% chance of that draft pick coming in the 1st round. And finally, quarterbacks with a 3-star rating had a 6.15% chance of eventually being drafted and a 1.64% chance of that draft selection being in the 1st round.

Overall, the probability that a high school quarterback is eventually selected in the NFL draft is astronomically higher if he’s been given a 5-star rating.

Looking ahead to the recruiting class of 2008, here’s the list of quarterbacks that received a 4-star rating or better, with the round and year they were drafted in or their current college:

Star-Rating	Quarterback	Draft Round (Year) or Current College
5-Star	Terrelle Pryor	3 (2011)
5-Star	E.J. Manuel	FSU
5-Star	Dayne Crist	Kansas
5-Star	Andrew Luck	1 (2012)
5-Star	Kevin Craft	N/A
4-Star	Mike Glennon	N.C. State
4-Star	Landry Jones	Oklahoma
4-Star	Blaine Gabbert	1 (2011)
4-Star	Tommy Dorman	N/A
4-Star	Nick Crissman	N/A
4-Star	Sean Renfree	Duke
4-Star	Star Jackson	N/A
4-Star	Robert Griffin	1 (2012)
4-Star	Kyle Parker	N/A
4-Star	MarQueis Gray	Minnesota
4-Star	Darron Thomas	N/A
4-Star	Jacob Bower	N/A
4-Star	Dax Crum	N/A
4-Star	Greg Alexander	N/A
4-Star	David Pittman	N/A
4-Star	Boo Jackson	N/A
4-Star	Tyson Lee	N/A
4-Star	Greg Cross	N/A
4-Star	Jacory Harris	N/A

If you don’t get anything else out of this article, please simply get this:

Somewhere out there, there’s a guy named Boo, and that’s what keeps me going.

————

By: Tyler Raborn

In NCAAF NFL Draft Star Rating, QB Star Rating, Quarterback Star Rating, Scout Star Rating

The Most Overachieving and Underachieving College Football Programs of the Last 7 Years

Tyler Raborn — Friday, January 18, 2013 — 17 Comments

Many fans believe that recruiting is the key to success in college football.

Is that the case? Is college football strictly dictated by recruiting? Are teams’ accomplishments directly related to their recruiting classes?

Umm… kinda, sorta, and maybe.

After 10-20 hours of research and building an excel file that would make Nate Silver proud, those are the answers I came up with— total indecision.

But what my research did determine was data showing the most overachieving and underachieving teams of the past 7 years.

The terms “overachieving” and “underachieving” are in regards to the relationship between the amount of talent on a given team and their actual performance with that talent.

So what defines a team’s “talent”?

I used the most objective formula that I could come up with to determine talent. And while I know this method has several exceptions and is extremely broad, it is the most effective method that I could come up with, without doing individual team analyses. So, keep in mind, this is all done to give a broad picture of a general idea— not a detailed team-by-team analysis.

First, I collected all of the recruiting data available from two of the most respected sources in the college football recruiting industry: Scout, Inc. and Rivals. Both Scout and Rivals’ data goes back to 2002, so I collected all of the team rankings in recruiting from 2002 to 2012 from each site and inserted them into an excel file. Then, I averaged the rankings together to come up with an objective “composite score” to represent each team for each year.

For example, in 2003 Scout ranked Florida State’s recruiting class 12th in the nation, while Rivals ranked them 21st in the nation. Thus, their composite score was a ranking of 16.5.

Next, I devised a formula to account for all of the recruiting classes on an individual team. After examining several depth charts, I determined the following weights for each class:

Freshman- 12.5%
Sophomore (or Redshirt Freshman)- 22.5%
Junior (or Redshirt Sophomore)- 25%
Senior (or Redshirt Junior)- 27.5%
5th Year Senior- 12.5%

So,the formula to determine, what I will call, the “talent quotient” on a particular team is:

( .125 x Composite Score of Freshman Class ) + ( .225 x Composite Score of Sophomore Class ) + ( .25 x Composite Score of Junior Class ) + ( .275 x Composite Score of Senior Class ) + ( .125 x Composite Score of 5th Year Senior Class ) = Talent Quotient

For instance, to determine the talent quotient of the 2006 Florida State team, we simply need to plug in the composite scores of each recruiting class into the formula. Here’s Florida State’s 2002 – 2006 recruiting class ranks:

Year	Scout, Inc.	Rivals	Composite Score
2002	6	4	5
2003	12	21	16.5
2004	4	3	3.5
2005	3	2	2.5
2006	12	3	7.5

So, inputting the 5 composite scores into the formula would give us the following:

( .125 x 7.5 ) + ( .225 x 2.5 ) + ( .25 x 3.5 ) + ( .275 x 16.5 ) + ( .125 x 5 ) = 7.5375

Thus, the 2006 Florida State team had a talent quotient of 7.5375, which was the 5th lowest score in the nation. Hence, according to the formula, the 2006 Florida State Seminoles had the 5th most talented team in all of college football.

Once I had determined the talent quotient for every team in the FBS for the 2006 season, I ranked each team by their talent quotient, with the lowest score ranked number 1, the second lowest ranked number 2, and so on. Then, I repeated the process for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 seasons.

The logic behind this process is simple: the teams with more talent should beat the teams with less. So, the higher ranked “talent quotient,” the more talent a team can field in a game. In other words, the number 1 ranked team in talent, all other things being equal (they’re not), should beat the number 2 ranked team in talent.

After ranking every FBS college football team from 2006 until 2012, I compared these ranks to how the teams finished in the final college football polls. In an effort to make this process more objective, I averaged the final AP polls with the final USA Today polls to determine a general end of the year ranking for each team. The purpose of this method is to compare how a team performed relative to the talent on the team.

So after inventing a “talent quotient,” ranking teams by that invented number, comparing those ranks to the ranks of plausibly inaccurate year end poll rankings, I came up with the most overachieving and underachieving college football programs over the last 7 years…

*Drumroll*

The Most Overachieving Programs

Four teams stood far above the rest in regards to their ability to play at a level far above what the talent on their team would indicate they were capable of. Fans and analysts offer up a multitude of reasons for these teams’ success, such as: coaching, strength of schedule, and a plethora of other factors, both negative and positive, in an attempt to explain these teams’ habits of winning seemingly far beyond their talent level. Yet, no matter what your biased opinion may be, you have to admit, what these 4 teams have done with the talent on their rosters is nothing short of impressive.

4. BYU

Year	Talent Quotient Ranking	Final Poll Ranking
2006	59th	15th*
2007	59th	14th*
2008	59th	25th*
2009	56th	12th
2010	54th	NR
2011	53rd	25th*
2012	51st	NR

3. Cincinnati

Year	Talent Quotient Ranking	Final Poll Ranking
2006	91st	NR
2007	88th	18th
2008	80th	17th
2009	74th	8th
2010	67th	NR
2011	59th	25th
2012	57th	24th

2. TCU

Year	Talent Quotient Ranking	Final Poll Ranking
2006	62nd	21st*
2007	62nd	NR
2008	68th	7th
2009	71st	6th
2010	74th	2nd
2011	65th	13th
2012	53rd	NR

1. Boise State

Year	Talent Quotient Ranking	Final Poll Ranking
2006	75th	5th
2007	67th	NR
2008	67th	12th
2009	68th	4th
2010	70th	8th
2011	73rd	7th
2012	71st	16th

And onto the more entertaining part of this column…

The Most Underachieving Programs

A.K.A. the laughing stock of college football. These teams recruit some of the most talented players in the country year in and year out, but over the past 7 years, they’ve had an extraordinarily hard time making that talent translate to success on the field. An important factor to take into consideration is that I have adjusted the formula that I used to determine these rankings to add more weight to higher ranked teams. The logic behind this adjustment is simple. Without the adjustment, a team that finishes the season ranked 67th and has a talent quotient ranking of 49th is a bigger letdown (or “underachiever”) than a team that has the number 1 ranked talent quotient and loses 3 games to finish the season ranked 17th. And, in my opinion, the team that has the most talent in the country, but manages to lose 3 games and wind up out of the top 15, is a bigger underachiever than a team with mediocre talent performing a little less than mediocre. Thus, this adjustment gives much more weight to teams with higher ranked talent quotients. So, without further ado, here’s your top 7 most underachieving college football programs over the last 7 years…

7. Notre Dame

Year	Talent Quotient Ranking	Final Poll Ranking
2006	15th	NR
2007	19th	NR
2008	14th	NR
2009	9th	NR
2010	9th	NR
2011	10th	NR
2012	12th	3rd

6. Tennessee

Year	Talent Quotient Ranking	Final Poll Ranking
2006	9th	24th
2007	10th	12th
2008	11th	NR
2009	14th	NR
2010	14th	NR
2011	14th	NR
2012	13th	NR

5. Georgia

Year	Talent Quotient Ranking	Final Poll Ranking
2006	3rd	25th
2007	3rd	3rd*
2008	3rd	12th*
2009	3rd	NR
2010	6th	NR
2011	6th	20th*
2012	7th	5th

4. Michigan

Year	Talent Quotient Ranking	Final Poll Ranking
2006	8th	9th*
2007	4th	19th*
2008	4th	NR
2009	6th	NR
2010	8th	NR
2011	12th	11th*
2012	11th	25th

3. Florida State

Year	Talent Quotient Ranking	Final Poll Ranking
2006	5th	NR
2007	7th	NR
2008	7th	22nd
2009	12th	NR
2010	13th	17th*
2011	9th	23rd
2012	5th	9th

2. USC

Year	Talent Quotient Ranking	Final Poll Ranking
2006	1st	4th
2007	1st	3rd*
2008	1st	3rd*
2009	1st	21st
2010	1st	NR
2011	2nd	16th
2012	3rd	NR

1. Miami (FL)

Year	Talent Quotient Ranking	Final Poll Ranking
2006	4th	NR
2007	8th	NR
2008	9th	NR
2009	11th	19th
2010	12th	NR
2011	13th	NR
2012	15th	NR

*Rounded numbers

One last interesting fact to consider is that no team in the past 7 years has won a National Championship without a talent quotient ranking below 10th. So, while it is very possible for teams to crack the Top 25 without Top 25 talent, it is much more difficult to make it to, and win, the National Championship without elite talent.

So, in conclusion… as if you didn’t already whine about your college football team enough, I hope that I’ve provided you with further information to sulk about— the 7 years of your life that you’ve been continuously letdown as a fan.

————

By: Tyler Raborn

In NCAAF, Sports Analytics Overachieving College Football Programs, Underachieving College Football Programs

Johnny Football: The Legend That Almost Wasn’t

Caleb Brasher — Monday, January 7, 2013 — 2 Comments

Johnny Manziel was the best player in college football last year. I will accept no other nominations. He won the Heisman his freshman year. No one else has EVER done that, and I won’t even begin to look at his stats.

I don’t remember seeing a guy with his playmaking ability. And before you start posting clips of Tebow and Cam in college, I would argue that they were pure, athletic specimens. Granted Manziel is an incredible athlete as well, but he possesses something beyond just raw athleticism. He has a knack for the big play. He has the feel, for me, of an offensive Honey Badger. He just always seems to be there to make the big play when his team needs it. Hopefully, ole Johnny Football will do a better job at staying away from trouble (although some of his off the field issues already, even before his success, concern me).

This is what I really want to talk about though – Johnny was the best player in college football last year, but at the beginning of August, he wasn’t even clearly the best quarterback on his own team!

Throughout the spring, it was a four-way battle to replace first round pick Ryan Tannehill: Johnny Boy, Jameill Showers, Matt Joeckel, and true freshman Matt Davis. Though, the battle seemed to really be between Manziel and Showers.

But Showers was the presumed favorite throughout the process. Even after the Spring game, everyone seemed convinced that Jameill was going to be the man. Even one week before the announcement, people were still predicting Showers to replace Tannehill.

Sure he was the only one on that list to have any kind of FBS experience, but still. We are not talking about just a couple of average QBs duking it out for a spot; we are talking about the HEISMAN TROPHY WINNER!!! Shouldn’t that decision be crystal clear?

Finally on August 15, Sumlin announced that Manziel would take the first team reps up until the Louisiana Tech Game:

“Johnny has performed the best at this stage and we will proceed until the season opener with him getting the first-team reps.”

Sumlin said in another statement:

“My policy is simple really; the best player plays. Competition is a great thing and we need more competition at all of our positions. All of our quarterbacks have competed well, and I expect them to continue to push Johnny.”

It is almost comical to look back now and read these articles from when the Aggies were unsure of who their quarterback would be. It is even more enjoyable to look back and read stupid people’s comments about the future unknown quarterback.

Here is a gem from @v2the4:

“…growing pains for Sumlin and his offensive coordinator, Kliff Klingsbury…they were spoiled the last four years by having Case Keenum under center, but at tamu, not only dont you have a qb, but you only have one WR to count on right now in Ryan Swoope…”

Man, you look like an idiot.

However, More than any of the idiocy or madness that seems to continually swirl around Johnny Football, this is my main point: he won the Heisman, but he also almost lost the starting position on his own team. Had he not come back in the fall and listened to his coaches, we may have never gotten a glimpse at the phenomenon that is Johnny Football.

Here is what Kingsbury had to say right after Manziel was announced the starter,

“He was making some plays in the spring but he was pretty reckless with the ball.”

Kliff would also add,

“He just came back to camp and was making really quick decisions, protecting the football really well.”

He listened to his coaches and made some changes in being more cautious with the football. It appears that is what pushed Sumlin and staff over the edge to go with the redshirt freshman.

So I cannot help but wonder… how many more potential Heisman winners did not take their coach’s advice and ended up on the bench, never to take a snap? How many potential offensive record setters just tried to rely on their talent and remained reckless, so the coach went with the reliable veteran instead of the young gunslinger? How many legends just never got a chance?

Now I realize this is a unique situation. I know that Sumlin’s system provides a great opportunity for unreal numbers. I know that you would say that Johnny would have eventually gotten his shot, even if not this year, and we would have seen then, but I still can’t help but wonder, “What if?”

If it wasn’t crystal clear for Sumlin that he was watching a Heisman trophy winner practice right in front of his eyes, then I would venture to guess it could have happened to another coach.

I realize this is all speculation. There is no way to ever know what might have been for these lost Heisman winners, or if they even exist.

I could very well be completely wrong, but I could just as easily be completely right.

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By: Caleb Brasher

In NCAAF Heisman Winner, Johnny Football, Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M

The Top College Sports Programs… Draft Style

Baxter Price — Sunday, January 6, 2013 — Leave a comment

A day after the Big East lost its fifth member in nearly a year and a half with Rutgers leaving for the Big Ten, Jim Boeheim (Syracuse head basketball coach) had this to say: “Maybe they should just have a draft, each conference should just draft teams … except then they’d have to make a decision and they wouldn’t be able to figure it out. Eventually, they’ll get this thing figured out. They’ll get all the teams moved and then in a year or two someone will say ‘We need to take somebody,’ … But I’ll be long gone by then.”

After Louisville announced its switch, the number is up to seven teams bolting the Big East for the ACC. Jim Boeheim, a man who helped build the Big East into a national power, is now is going to struggle making a competitive conference schedule starting in 2014, and he isn’t the only one upset about the changes.

The biggest reason evident in all of the realignment is simple; college football television contract money has never been more valuable. Now, I won’t go into the reasoning behind every schools switch. Instead, I will offer a solution. Jim Boeheim suggested drafting, some say make four sixteen-team college football monster conferences, while others say make a basketball conference, football conference, and baseball conference. Even more might say, “leave them the way they have been for the past 30 years.”

I love the drafting idea, and even though it would never happen, I think it’s really interesting on paper and, perhaps, the most fair and reasonable way as well. I do agree with maximizing your profits, but all within the realm of making it somewhat geographically friendly. My rankings below are what I believe would be the ten most sought after schools if a draft took place today.

Texas- The Longhorns athletic department has an operating revenue around 160 million dollars, the next closest is 20 million back from the Horns. If the 20,000+ square foot weight rooms, 50 total championship banners, and top notch coaches do not entice a 18 year old to go there for free, maybe a 24 hour network dedicated to all things Texas will. The Longhorn network is still in its beginning stages, and has a 247 million dollar, 20 year contract with ESPN. Bill Byrne, Gregg Byrnes father, and former A.D at Texas A&M had this to say about the Horns: “They do everything they can to set themselves apart, that they are the very best, they are elite.”
Notre Dame- The only independent (football) team on this list and in my opinion one of the most valuable colleges in America. Apparently NBC thought so too, as the television station has a 15 million dollar deal with the Irish (the only team, college or pro with a national TV deal), and that deal has been restructured to increase the total to 17 million starting in 2015. We all know about the Irish’s success in football, 11 national titles, most consensus all Americans among any other school, and 7 Heisman trophy winners. Although the rest of their athletic programs have not shared the same success as the football team, Notre Dame has won 26 national championships overall since its inception. While they are currently in the Big East in all sports but football, the Irish join the ACC starting in 2014.
Ohio State- The Buckeyes are among the nations elite in revenues at around 135 million dollars (second to Texas). And, probably the most complete athletic dominance among every sport, men’s and women’s. Since the inception of the Athletic Directors Cup, Ohio State has finished in the top 25 each year, including top-6 finishes in three of the last five years. Ohio State is one of only four universities to have won a NCAA national championship in baseball, men’s basketball, and football.
Florida- Easiest thing to do as a Florida assistant? Recruit. The university sells itself. Warm weather, beautiful campus, and most of all, winning… and lots of it. Every year since 1983, the NACDA has recognized the Gators athletic program as one of the ten best overall Division 1 athletic programs in the country in its annual cup standings. Florida is the only school in NCAA history to win a men’s basketball championship and football championship in the same year. During the 2011-2012 academic school year the Gators men and women’s teams combined to win the SEC all-sports trophy for the 22nd time in the past 25 years.
Alabama- This is one school that is on this list simply because of their football program, without it, Alabama probably isn’t in the top 20. In 2002, Sports Illustrated named Alabama the 26th best collegiate sports program in America. That was before they won 2 National Championships in 3 years under Nick Saban. When you can compare, as a coach, to Bear Bryant, that’s saying something, and Saban has done just that. He is in the process of building a dynasty in Tuscaloosa making it nearly impossible for other SEC teams to compete in recruiting against the Tide. 23 SEC titles, 14 national titles, and 58 bowl appearances (record) are just icing on the cake at this point. Alabama generates revenue of around 125 million/year.
Stanford- If this was a list based on tradition and academic success alone, Stanford would be a unanimous number 1. The school has won the second most national championships of any school in the nation at 116. They rank first in women’s titles at 42. And, is the number 1 school in individual sport titles at 448. In the NACDA Directors Cup I mentioned earlier, Stanford has won that title for 18 consecutive years running. Their figures are not released to the public as far as budgets and finances. But the “Ivy League-like” atmosphere, beautiful weather, and winning tradition make the Cardinal one of the very best athletic schools in NCAA history.
Oregon- Nike, Nike, Nike…. Phil Knight (Co-founder of Nike) graduated from Oregon and ran track for the Ducks. Nike supplies the Ducks with all of their equipment and gear. The Football team has been known for being one of the most exciting teams to watch in college football. And, they have participated in 4 BCS bowl games since the BCS’ inception in 1998. They are known for their “flash” and “uniqueness” with a new jersey for seemingly every game, air conditioned football pads, and their basketball court even has painted trees on the edges to simulate “The Pond” feel. It also doesn’t hurt that Phil Knight has also recently made a 100 million dollar donation to the Athletics Legacy Fund. They currently have the 2ndranked athletic budget in the PAC-12, behind USC. But, many predict that over the next 10 years that could change.
Michigan- Michigan’s success seems to come in spurts, whether it was the “Fab 5” revolutionizing modern day basketball, or the 11 national championships the football team owns. The Wolverines have been one of the top athletic programs since its inception. Their 33 overall Division-I national championships rank 10th all time. Now the “X-Factor”? The near 130 million dollar athletic budget, which they don’t mind flaunting. By the way, they are currently ranked 2nd in Men’s basketball with a 15-0 record.
USC- In a conference draft, its key to gain hold of each state. And, what better state to own other than California? USC’s recruiting is about as easy as Florida’s. Athletes love playing there. Rich in history and tradition, the Trojans have won 118 national titles, which ranks 3rd all time. USC football is 2nd in Heisman winners and won the National Title 11 times, and their baseball team has won the national title 12 times, which more than doubles the next closest. Further, their women’s teams have won a total of 23 championships.
North Carolina- North Carolina has won 39 team national championships in six different sports, ranking 8th all-time, and 51 individual national championships. And, that’s just for starters. They arguably have the most influential athlete of all time as an alumnus in Michael Jordan, who now proudly sponsors the basketball teams with his Jordan apparel, and is worth around half a billion dollars himself. Their baseball team has enjoyed plenty of recent success reaching the College World Series in 2006 and 2007.

**The financial figures that I included are from USA Today and the NACDA Directors cup, and they can be found here.

Other notables: Oklahoma, LSU, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Auburn, UCLA

In conclusion:

Texas
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Florida
Alabama
Stanford
Oregon
Michigan
USC
North Carolina

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By: Baxter Price

In NCAAB, NCAAF Best College Basketball Programs, Best College Football Programs, Top College Basketball Programs, top College Football Programs, Top College Programs

My Top 10 Sporting Events

Spencer Boothe — Sunday, January 6, 2013 — 6 Comments

As a sports fan, there is always something on TV that I can watch. However, some of those events are more appealing to me than others. Some events I can tolerate, while others I would do anything to be able to watch (I thought about inserting some corny over-exaggeration here, but I’ll just let you use your imagination). So I decided to make a list of my top 10 favorite sporting events. Now I am a Mississippi State, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Team USA fan, so this list is assuming that my favorite teams are NOT involved in that event. Obviously, if my favorite teams are involved, then I would be much more interested. Also, since I am in SEC country here in Mississippi, there is a little SEC bias. So here goes:

10. SEC Baseball tournament- As a former high school baseball player, baseball was always my one true love when it came to playing sports. However, watching baseball has never been as appealing to me as actually playing. I enjoy watching the SEC tournament because I know all the teams and have watched many of them play throughout the season. As for the tournament, it is interesting for me, but it’s not something that I feel like I have to watch.

9. World Series– Along the same lines as the SEC baseball tournament, I just don’t LOVE watching the World Series. I generally do watch the majority of the series, but it is generally for an inning or two at a time.

8. World Cup Qualifying– From my previous article, it is fair to assume that I am a soccer aficionado. Well, that assumption is correct. I really enjoy the sport, but I am much more of a fan of the international game, rather than club seasons. The World Cup is the mecca that every country in the nation longs to play for and win, and every country has an opportunity to get there during qualifying. 207 national teams from around the world have the opportunity to be among the final 32 that make it to the World Cup. The World Cup takes place every four years, so qualifying is taking place in between events. I really enjoy watching the qualifiers because every team is playing to advance, or to have to sit at home during the big event.

7. SEC Basketball Tournament– I am a big college sports fan, in general. Much more so than professional sports because in college players are playing to win rather than for their paychecks (I know that is debatable, especially here in SEC country). The SEC tournament is the end of the basketball season, and it is one last chance for teams to increase their seeding in the Big Dance, push themselves to the right side of the bubble, or steal a bid from someone else by winning the tournament. There is so much emotion during the tournament because for seniors it may be the last game they ever play. Every team wants to go to the NCAA tournament, and the SEC tournament is the last chance to impress the selection committee, or to win an automatic bid.

6. SEC championship game (football) – In recent years, SEC champion=BCS national champion. So, basically, watching this game is like watching the national championship game. It is always fun to watch the best team from the West play the best from the East for their shot to play for the BCS title. Even when it is not a de facto semifinal match, the game still determines the SEC winner and who will go to, at worst, the Sugar Bowl.

5. BCS National Championship– Now for the actual national championship game. As I just said, the winner of the SEC championship game usually wins this one, as well. But that is not always the case, and one of these days it will change (maybe Notre Dame this year. Probably not, though.) The national championship game is usually a hard-hitting affair for all the marbles, and it is a game that I always enjoy watching. Another thing I like about the broadcast is that they always show a “Year in Review” montage of all the big plays from the college season. It is also the last chance we get to watch football for roughly 8 months, so it is something that I cherish.

4. Bowl Season– You’re asking, ‘how can this guy like all the bowl games more than the actual championship game itself?’ Well, I do. I’m one of the people who actually enjoy watching all of the bowl games. As a huge college football fan, I enjoy watching as many games as possible. So you think that an Arizona vs Nevada matchup is boring? Well, I think that it could be awesome, and I’m going to watch it because you never know what’s going to happen. Some of the best plays of the season come in the small bowls that no one is watching. I’m watching, and I always will.

3. Super Bowl– I’ve already said that I like college sports much more than professional sports, and that is true. However, the Super Bowl is the exception. The talent in the NFL is so much better than it is in college football, and the game is so much faster. I am absolutely amazed by the freak athletes that play in the NFL, and the two teams in the Super Bowl are the best of the best. This is the last football action that we have until the preseason for the next year, so it is one last time for the guys to get together, grill out, and watch some football. Oh, and the commercials involved don’t hurt either.

2. World Cup– Yep, soccer again. I told you I love it. The World Cup is the only event in the world that the best players from each country play against each other to see whose country is superior (other than the Olympics, which I don’t care about, and other small sports that the USA doesn’t take part it). I love watching from the group stages to the knockout rounds to the finals while 32 countries battle to find out who is the world’s best. The fact that it is a tournament consisting of nations rather than professional teams is a huge reason why I am such a fan of the World Cup. Also, the fact that it takes place only every 4 years makes it that much more prestigious to me.

1. March Madness (NCAA Basketball Tournament)– And last but not least, as if there was any doubt, March Madness is my favorite sporting event. From flipping the channel between 4 games at one time on the first weekend, to the final buzzer of the championship game, I love every minute of it. The win or go home mentality makes every game as intense as possible, and who doesn’t love an upset? The first weekend of the tournament is as fast paced and unpredictable as anything else in sports (sorry NASCAR, you aren’t a sport). Does the best team in the nation always win the tournament? No, but 68 teams have a chance to win it. And whichever one of those teams actually does hoist the trophy will absolutely deserve it. I love watching every game of the tournament, and I always make sure my schedule is empty come March.

What say ye?

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By: Spencer Boothe